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Andrew S. Ackerman

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew S. Ackerman.

15 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Observational Constraint on A Feedback From Supercooled Clouds Reduces Projected Warming Uncertainty

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 ˚C and reduces inter-model spread.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
NASA NTRS2023

A 1D Model for Nucleation of Ice From Aerosol Particles: An Application to a Mixed-Phase Arctic Stratus Cloud Layer

Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) have been identified as significant contributors to uncertainties in climate projections, attributable to model representation of processes controlling the formation and loss of supercooled water droplets and ice particles from the atmosphere. Arctic MPCs are commonly widespread and long-lived, with sustained ice crystal formation processes that challenge current understanding. This study examines the ice-nucleating particle (INP) reservoir dynamics governing immersion-mode heterogeneous freezing in an observed case of Arctic MPCs using a simplified 1D aerosol-cloud model. The model setup includes prescribed dynamical forcings and thermodynamic profiles, and represents INPs as multicomponent and polydisperse particle size distributions. Diagnostic and prognostic approaches to immersion freezing parameterization are compared, including time-independent (singular) number- and surface area-based descriptions and a time-dependent description following classical nucleation theory (CNT). The choice of freezing parameterization defines the size of the INP reservoir. The CNT-based description yields an orders of magnitude larger INP reservoir than the singular parameterizations, which is the dominant factor for sustained ice crystal formation. The efficiency of the freezing process and cloud cooling are of secondary importance. A diagnostic treatment neglecting INP loss is only accurate when the INP reservoir size is large and INP depletion weak. Since a larger INP reservoir sustains ice crystal formation substantially longer, and ice water path scales with ice crystal concentrations for the conditions considered, resolving the source of differences in INP reservoir dynamics due to model implementation is a high priority for advancing climate model physics.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2023

Earth-System-Model Evaluation of Cloud and Precipitation Occurrence for Supercooled and Warm Clouds Over the Southern Ocean's Macquarie Island

Over the remote Southern Ocean (SO), cloud feedbacks contribute substantially to Earth system model (ESM) radiative biases. The evolution of low Southern Ocean clouds (cloud-top heights < ∼ 3 km) is strongly modulated by precipitation and/or evaporation, which act as the primary sink of cloud condensate. Constraining precipitation processes in ESMs requires robust observations suitable for process-level evaluations. A year-long subset (April 2016–March 2017) of ground-based profiling instrumentation deployed during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) field campaign (54.5∘ S, 158.9∘ E) combines a 95 GHz (W-band) Doppler cloud radar, two lidar ceilometers, and balloon-borne soundings to quantify the occurrence frequency of precipitation from the liquid-phase cloud base. Liquid-based clouds at Macquarie Island precipitate ∼ 70 % of the time, with deeper and colder clouds precipitating more frequently and at a higher intensity compared to thinner and warmer clouds. Supercooled cloud layers precipitate more readily than layers with cloud-top temperatures > 0 ∘C, regardless of the geometric thickness of the layer, and also evaporate more frequently. We further demonstrate an approach to employ these observational constraints for evaluation of a 9-year GISS-ModelE3 ESM simulation. Model output is processed through the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) radar and lidar instrument simulator with the same instrument specifications as those deployed during MICRE, therefore accounting for instrument sensitivities and ensuring a coherent comparison. Relative to MICRE observations, the ESM produces a smaller cloud occurrence frequency, smaller precipitation occurrence frequency, and greater sub-cloud evaporation. The lower precipitation occurrence frequency by the ESM relative to MICRE contrasts with numerous studies that suggest a ubiquitous bias by ESMs to precipitate too frequently over the SO when compared with satellite-based observations, likely owing to sensitivity limitations of spaceborne instrumentation and different sampling methodologies for ground- versus space-based observations. Despite these deficiencies, the ESM reproduces the observed tendency for deeper and colder clouds to precipitate more frequently and at a higher intensity. The ESM also reproduces specific cloud regimes, including near-surface clouds that account for ∼ 25 % of liquid-based clouds during MICRE and optically thin, non-precipitating clouds that account for ∼ 27 % of clouds with bases higher than 250 m. We suggest that the demonstrated framework, which merges observations with appropriately constrained model output, is a valuable approach to evaluate processes responsible for cloud radiative feedbacks in ESMs.

cloud feedbacks↗
NASA NTRS2022

Markovian Statistical Model of Cloud Optical Thickness. Part I: Theory and Examples

We present a generalization of the binary-value Markovian model previously used for statistical characterization of cloud masks to a continuous-value model describing 1D fields of cloud optical thickness (COT). This model has simple functional expressions and is specified by four parameters: the cloud fraction, the autocorrelation (scale) length, and the two parameters of the normalized probability density function of (non-zero) COT values (this PDF is assumed to have gamma-distribution form). Cloud masks derived from this model by separation between the values above and below some threshold in COT appear to have the same statistical properties as in binary-value model described in our previous publications. We demonstrate the ability of our model to generate examples of various cloud-field types by using it to statistically imitate actual cloud observations made by the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) during two field experiments.

binary-value Markovian model↗
NASA NTRS2022

Cloud Adjustments From Large-Scale Smoke–Circulation Interactions Strongly Modulate the Southeastern Atlantic Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition

Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeastern Atlantic Ocean from June to October, producing strong and competing aerosol radiative effects. Smoke effects on the transition between overcast stratocumulus and scattered cumulus clouds are investigated along a Lagrangian (air-mass-following) trajectory in regional climate and large eddy simulation models. Results are compared with observations from three recent field campaigns that took place in August 2017: ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY), and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The case study is set up around the joint ORACLES–CLARIFY flight that took place near Ascension Island on 18 August 2017. Smoke sampled upstream on an ORACLES flight on 15 August 2017 likely entrained into the marine boundary layer later sampled during the joint flight. The case is first simulated with the WRF-CAM5 regional climate model in three distinct setups: (1) FireOn, in which smoke emissions and any resulting smoke–cloud–radiation interactions are included; (2) FireOff, in which no smoke emissions are included; (3) RadOff, in which smoke emissions and their microphysical effects are included but aerosol does not interact directly with radiation. Over the course of the Lagrangian trajectory, differences in free tropospheric thermodynamic properties between FireOn and FireOff are nearly identical to those between FireOn and RadOff, showing that aerosol–radiation interactions are primarily responsible for the free tropospheric effects. These effects are non-intuitive: in addition to the expected heating within the core of the smoke plume, there is also a “banding” effect of cooler temperature (∼1–2 K) and greatly enhanced moisture (>2 g kg−1) at the plume top. This banding effect is caused by a vertical displacement of the former continental boundary layer in the free troposphere in the FireOn simulation resulting from anomalous diabatic heating due to smoke absorption of sunlight that manifests primarily as a few hundred meters per day reduction in large-scale subsidence over the ocean. A large eddy simulation (LES) is then forced with free tropospheric fields taken from the outputs for the WRF-CAM5 FireOn and FireOff runs. Cases are run by selectively perturbing one variable (e.g., aerosol number concentration, temperature, moisture, vertical velocity) at a time to better understand the contributions from different indirect (microphysical), “large-scale” semi-direct (above-cloud thermodynamic and subsidence changes), and “local” semi-direct (below-cloud smoke absorption) effects. Despite a more than 5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration when including smoke aerosol concentrations, minimal differences in cloud fraction evolution are simulated by the LES when comparing the base case with a perturbed aerosol case with identical thermodynamic and dynamic forcings. A factor of 2 decrease in background free tropospheric aerosol concentrations from the FireOff simulation shifts the cloud evolution from a classical entrainment-driven “deepening–warming” transition to trade cumulus to a precipitation-driven “drizzle-depletion” transition to open cells, however. The thermodynamic and dynamic changes caused by the WRF-simulated large-scale adjustments to smoke diabatic heating strongly influence cloud evolution in terms of both the rate of deepening (especially for changes in the inversion temperature jump and in subsidence) and in cloud fraction on the final day of the simulation (especially for the moisture “banding” effect). Such large-scale semi-direct effects would not have been possible to simulate using a small-domain LES model alone.

southeast Atlantic Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2022

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios with GISS-E2.1

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non-interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One-Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1-G) and HYCOM (E2.1-H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high-mitigation scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1-H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1-G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1-H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5-8.5 in the E2.1-G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS-E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low-end scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century).

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2021

Snow Reconciles Observed and Simulated Phase Partitioning and Increases Cloud Feedback

The surprising increase of Earth's climate sensitivity in the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models has been largely attributed to extratropical cloud feedback, which is thought to be driven by greater supercooled water in present-day cloud phase partitioning (CPP). Here we report that accounting for precipitation in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE3 radiation scheme, neglected in more than 60% of CMIP6 and 90% of CMIP5 models, systematically changes its apparent CPP and substantially increases its cloud feedback, consistent with results using CMIP models. Including precipitation in the comparison with Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) measurements and in model radiation schemes is essential to faithfully constrain cloud amount and phase partitioning, and simulate cloud feedbacks. Our findings suggest that making radiation schemes precipitation-aware (missing in most CMIP6 models) should strengthen their positive cloud feedback and further increase their already high mean climate sensitivity.

Earth's climate sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS2021

Preconditioning of overcast-to-broken cloud transitions by riming in marine cold air outbreaks

Marine cold air outbreaks (CAOs) commonly form overcast cloud decks that transition into broken cloud fields downwind, dramatically altering the local radiation budget. In this study, we investigate the impact of frozen hydrometeors on these transitions. We focus on a CAO case in the NW Atlantic, the location of the multi-year flight campaign ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment). We use MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) reanalysis fields to drive large eddy simulations with mixed-phase two-moment microphysics in a Lagrangian framework. We find that transitions are triggered by substantial rain (rainwater paths >25 g m−2), and only simulations that allow for aerosol depletion result in sustained breakups, as observed. Using a range of diagnostic ice nucleating particle concentrations, Ninp, we find that increasing ice progressively accelerates transitions, thus abbreviating the overcast state. Ice particles affect the cloud-topped boundary layer evolution, primarily through riming-related processes prior to substantial rain, leading to (1) a reduction in cloud liquid water, (2) early consumption of cloud condensation nuclei, and (3) early and light precipitation cooling and moistening below cloud. We refer to these three effects collectively as “preconditioning by riming”. Greater boundary layer aerosol concentrations available as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) delay the onset of substantial rain. However, cloud breakup and low CCN concentration final stages are found to be inevitable in this case, due, primarily, to liquid water path buildup. An ice-modulated cloud transition speed suggests the possibility of a negative cloud–climate feedback. To address prevailing uncertainties in the model representation of mixed-phase processes, the magnitude of ice formation and riming impacts and, thereby, the strength of an associated negative cloud–climate feedback process, requires further observational evaluation by targeting riming hot spots with in situ imaging probes that allow for both the characterization of ice particles and abundance of supercooled droplets.

Marine cold air outbreaks↗
NASA NTRS2021

An overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) project: aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the southeast Atlantic basin

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth’s biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) investigation with three intensive observation periods designed to study key atmospheric processes that determine the climate impacts of these aerosols. During the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring (June–October), aerosol particles reaching 3–5 km in altitude are transported westward over the southeast Atlantic, where they interact with one of the largest subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain in part due to a scarcity of observational constraints on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as due to the parameterized treatment of physical processes. Three ORACLES deployments by the NASA P-3 aircraft in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018 (totaling ~ 350 science flight hours), augmented by the deployment of the NASA ER-2 aircraft for remote sensing in September 2016 (totaling ~ 100 science flight hours), were intended to help fill this observational gap. ORACLES focuses on three fundamental science themes centered on the climate effects of African BB aerosols: (a) direct aerosol radiative effects, (b) effects of aerosol absorption on atmospheric circulation and clouds, and (c) aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions. This paper summarizes the ORACLES science objectives, describes the project implementation, provides an overview of the flights and measurements in each deployment, and highlights the integrative modeling efforts from cloud to global scales to address science objectives. Significant new findings on the vertical structure of BB aerosol physical and chemical properties, chemical aging, cloud condensation nuclei, rain and precipitation statistics, and aerosol indirect effects are emphasized, but their detailed descriptions are the subject of separate publications. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project and the dataset it produced.

Jens Redemann↗
NASA NTRS2020

Non-Turbulent Liquid-Bearing Polar Clouds: Observed Frequency of Occurrence and Simulated Sensitivity to Gravity Waves

A common feature of polar liquid-bearing clouds (LBCs) is radiatively-driven turbulence, which may variously alter cloud lifecycle via vertical mixing, droplet activation, and subsequent feedbacks. However, polar LBCs are commonly initiated under stable, non-turbulent conditions. Using long-term data from the North Slope of Alaska and McMurdo, Antarctica, we show that non-turbulent conditions prevail in ~25% of detected LBCs, surmised to be preferentially early in their lifecycle. We conclude that non-turbulent LBCs are likely common over the polar regions owing primarily to atmospheric temperature and stability. Such stable environments are known to support gravity wave activity. Using large-eddy simulations we find that short to intermediate period gravity waves may catalyze turbulence formation when aerosol particles available for activation are sufficiently small. We posit that the frequent occurrence of non-turbulent LBCs over the polar regions has implications for polar aerosol-cloud interactions and their parameterization in large-scale models.

Clouds↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Survey of microphysical properties of marine boundary-layer clouds in the Western North Atlantic

Oceanic low level clouds strongly affect the atmospheric radiation budget. Uncertainties in their microphysical properties and cover currently limit the accuracy of climate predictions. Further, studies quantifying the relative importance of aerosol and dynamics on cloud properties in specific meteorological regimes are poorly constrained by observations in the Western North Atlantic boundary layer. Low level clouds were measured during the Aerosol Cloud meTereology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) campaign in winter and summer 2020. The two NASA LaRC research aircraft HU-25 Falcon and UC-12 B-200 King Air conducted 35 simultaneous flights to investigate aerosol-cloud interactions of maritime clouds and their impact on radiation. Number concentration, liquid water content, ice water content, and particle size distribution in the size range of 3 µm to 1460 µm in diameter were measured with the fast forward scattering cloud probe (FCDP) and 2-dimensional optical array imaging probe (2D-S) onboard the Falcon. Here, we present an overview of late winter (February-March) and late summer (August-September) oceanic cloud properties in the region 65°W to 80°W and 30°N to 40°N. We compare cloud properties in these two seasons and investigate their dependence on meteorological parameters and aerosol abundance. In a case study, we present cloud observations in a cold air outbreak event on 1 March 2020 with a specific focus on mixed-phase clouds.

microphysical properties↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Better Constraining Supercooled Clouds Could Reduce Projected Warming Spread

The increase of climate sensitivity to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models (ESMs) compared to CMIP5 ESMs is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud response to climate change, referred to as cloud feedback. The ratio of supercooled liquid cloud water relative to all cloud water, termed liquid phase ratio (LPR), which has also notably increased in many recent ESMs, is thought to be a primary driver of the extratropical cloud feedback increase. Unlike the preponderance of previous studies that compare native model LPR directly with observations, here we evaluate LPR over three ESM generations against Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) using an instrument simulator approach, which mimics instrument limitations and uses consistent cloud definitions and resolutions. We find that current coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) ESMs collectively simulate greater LPR than previous CMIP generations and overestimate LPR compared to observations, contrary to previous findings, likely driven by past inconsistent comparisons of ESM outputs with CALIPSO observations. We further show that greater LPR in ESM present-day climate is unexpectedly correlated with a smaller extratropical cloud feedback, attributable to a decrease of cloud amount exceeding the increase of cloud optical depth. Finally, our results suggest that improving constraints on model LPR using our evaluation framework would likely reduce the spread in CMIP6 climate sensitivities, owing to its effect on extratropical cloud feedback from supercooled clouds.

greenhouse gas concentrations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ROCKE-3D 2.0: An Updated General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), the generalized 3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. ROCKE-3D version 2.0 is a descendant of GISS ModelE2.1, the flagship GCM of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) used in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. ROCKE-3D is a continuous effort to expand the capabilities of GISS ModelE to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including different atmospheric planet sizes, gravities, pressures, rotation rates, more diverse chemistries and atmospheric compositions, diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. We present in this release many more supported configurations which can serve as starting points to simulate terrestrial planets of interest. Two different radiation schemes are supported, the GISS radiation, valid for Earth-like planets, and SOCRATES, which is more generalized but requires more CPU resources. In addition, three different atmospheric compositions are supported, three ocean configurations (prescribed, q-flux, and dynamic), and two resolutions: the medium resolution (4 x 5 degrees in latitude x longitude) used in ROCKE-3D 1.0, and the fine resolution, which has double the resolution in the atmosphere and 4 times the resolution in the ocean. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.

ROCKE-3D↗