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Anderson, Kevin

Publications and source records attributed to Anderson, Kevin.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning framework for layer-wise porosity prediction in metal powder bed fusion using thermal signatures

Abstract Part quality manufactured by the laser powder bed fusion process is significantly affected by porosity. Existing works of process–property relationships for porosity prediction require many experiments or computationally expensive simulations without considering environmental variations. While efforts that adopt real-time monitoring sensors can only detect porosity after its occurrence rather than predicting it ahead of time. In this study, a novel porosity detection-prediction framework is proposed based on deep learning that predicts porosity in the next layer based on thermal signatures of the previous layers. The proposed framework is validated in terms of its ability to accurately predict lack of fusion porosity using computerized tomography (CT) scans, which achieves a F1-score of 0.75. The framework presented in this work can be effectively applied to quality control in additive manufacturing. As a function of the predicted porosity positions, laser process parameters in the next layer can be adjusted to avoid more part porosity in the future or the existing porosity could be filled. If the predicted part porosity is not acceptable regardless of laser parameters, the building process can be stopped to minimize the loss.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

twoaxistracking – a python package for simulating self-shading of two-axis tracking solar collectors

Self-shading in fields of two-axis tracking collectors typically ranges from 1% to 6% of the annual incident irradiation. It is thus essential to account for shading in order to obtain accurate yield estimates and financing for such solar projects. The present study presents the free and open-source Python package twoaxistracking for simulating self-shading in fields of two-axis tracking collectors. The package is freely available at: https://github.com/pvlib/twoaxistracking. The main steps of the method and mathematical formulation are described. Additionally, a demonstration of how to use the package is presented. The shading calculation method excels over previous methods found in the literature in that it can: handle arbitrary aperture geometries and distinguish between the total and active areas; account for sloped ground and collectors with different heights within the same field; reduce computation time by skipping calculations at high solar elevation angles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts

Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic fleet degradation insights

Abstract In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, high‐frequency data from commercial and utility‐scale photovoltaic (PV) systems have been collected to examine performance loss rates (PLRs) at a fleet scale. To date, performance data from more than 7.2‐gigawatt (GW) capacity, 1700 sites and 19,000 inverters—approximately equivalent to 6% to 7% of the entire US PV market—have been collected. An overall PLR of −0.75%/year was found, which is in line with historical and recent findings. Tracked silicon (Si) and cadmium telluride (CdTe) performed comparably with all fixed‐tilt systems. Higher PLRs were found for hotter temperature zones; cooler climates exhibit a median −0.48%/year loss, which increases to −0.88%/year in hotter climates. High‐efficiency module technologies showed median PLRs in line with conventional Si technologies but demonstrated markedly different PLR behavior when filtered only for low‐light conditions <600 W/m 2 . Causes for this technology‐dependent behavior are under investigation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative: Performance Index-Based Analysis

In this analysis, we report on 250 PV systems throughout the US, comprising 157 MWdc of system capacity and over 10,000 monthly PI values based on high-frequency (subhourly) energy data and satellite-based resource data. The distribution of PI values is analyzed, and multiple causes of underperformance are assessed, including first-year startup issues, snowfall and inverter downtime. An initial distribution of raw monthly PI values was collected with mean measured / modeled performance of PI = 0.935. After correcting for the three identifiable loss factors mentioned above, an average monthly performance of PI = 0.994 was obtained, with a distribution closely following a Gumbel Extreme Value distribution. In particular, inverter availability was found to contribute a system energy loss of 2.3% on average, except in the first six months of operation when availability losses are closer to 8%. Other startup issues beyond inverter downtime such as partial string outage contributed an additional 5% underperformance in the first year of operation across the fleet. Winter performance was also found to be 5%-10% below summer performance on average, likely due to snowfall. A simple linear relationship was found between snow loss and monthly snowfall accumulation in cm, indicating between 6% - 40% loss in months with nonzero snowfall, depending on climate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Program and Methodology

The US Department of Energy’s PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative has been launched in order to collect and evaluate production data across multiple PV fleet partners. Performance statistics are anonymized, aggregated and shared to represent a snapshot of the US commercial and utility-scale fleet. Production data have been collected from over 1500 systems representing more than 1.3 GWdc capacity. Preliminary analysis indicates median performance loss rates are in line with previous publications of system degradation, on the order of –0.6%/yr to –0.9%/yr (preliminary numbers subject to change). These values are higher than module-only degradation rates which are often used in pro-forma estimates of project performance and economics, potentially exposing owner/operators to increased risk if systems under-perform over time.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Torque-Tube Parameters on Rear-Irradiance and Rear-Shading Loss for Bifacial PV Performance on Single-Axis Tracking Systems

The emergence of cost-competitive bifacial PV modules has raised the question of the additional value of bifacial 1-axis tracking arrays, in particular when considering rear-irradiance losses from the tracker system itself. In this work, the effect of different geometries and materials of torque tubes is evaluated through ray-trace simulations and found to cause rear irradiance shading factors between 2% to 8% for systems without gap between the modules in 2-UP configuration. Inclusion of a gap between the modules can offset the shading factor. Electrical mismatch is also evaluated for the various configurations, and a methodology to apply shading factor and electrical mismatch loss to rear irradiance from the calculated loss in DC power, which averages 1% for the systems explored here, is proposed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slope-Aware Backtracking for Single-Axis Trackers

Closed-form equations of the true-tracking angle, backtracking angle, shaded fraction, and orientation angles of single-axis solar trackers installed on arbitrarily oriented slopes are derived. These slope-aware adjustments are necessary to successfully prevent row to row shading in arrays with nonzero cross-axis slope. A tracker rotation modeling procedure comprising these equations is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative (March 2020 Methodology Report)

Data for thousands of systems by multiple sources were transmitted to NREL for evaluation. Initial automated data quality assurance (QA) checks identified hundreds of systems (QA Tier 1) with high-quality meteorological and AC production data and hundreds of QA Tier 2 systems with adequate data quality. A standard RdTools analysis was conducted for these systems, evaluating performance loss on an annualized basis. To date with the systems evaluated so far, we find a median performance loss rate (aka Rd or degradation rates) for the entire fleet of -0.72%/year based on individual inverter data, which is in line with historical degradation rates previously published for modules and systems (-0.5% to -0.9% / yr, Jordan et al. 2016). A fleet-scale distribution based on revenue-grade meter data rather than inverter AC (alternating current) data yields a slightly different result. We are working to understand the difference between this result and the inverter-based result of -0.72%/year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effect of Torque-Tube Parameters on Rear-Irradiance and Rear-Shading Loss for Bifacial PV Performance on Single-Axis Tracking Systems: Preprint

The emergence of cost-competitive bifacial PV modules has raised the question of the additional value of bifacial modules in 1-axis tracking arrays, in particular when considering rear-irradiance losses from the tracker system itself. In this work, the effect of different geometries and materials of torque tubes is evaluated and found to reduce rear-irradiance averages without any torque-tube shading by 0.1 to 12% for metallic and black absorptive torque tubes respectively for a clear-sky day. This paper will compare modeled to measured rear-irradiance profiles, and propose a recommended range of rear-shading loss factors for different geometry conditions. The effect of rear-irradiance distribution into electrical mismatch loss will also be explored.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effect of Torque-Tube Parameters on Rear-Irradiance and Rear-Shading Loss for Bifacial PV Performance on 1-Axis Tracking Systems

The emergence of cost-competitive bifacial PV modules has raised the question of the additional value of bifacial modules in 1-axis tracking arrays, in particular when considering rear-irradiance losses from the tracker system itself. In this work, the effect of different geometries and materials of torque tubes is evaluated and found to reduce rear-irradiance averages without any torque-tube shading by 0.1 to 12% for metallic and black absorptive torque tubes respectively for a clear-sky day. This paper will compare modeled to measured rear-irradiance profiles, and propose a recommended range of rear-shading loss factors for different geometry conditions. The effect of rear-irradiance distribution into electrical mismatch loss will also be explored. shading by 0.1 to 12% for metallic and black absorptive torque tubes respectively for a clear-sky day. This paper will compare modeled to measured rear-irradiance profiles, and propose a recommended range of rear-shading loss factors for different geometry conditions. The effect of rear-irradiance distribution into electrical mismatch loss will also be explored.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗